Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 2.081720 2.206593 2.338063 2.487309 2.652673 2.831020 3.038911
2025-09-28 1.867002 2.034685 2.219569 2.440304 2.699051 2.995805 3.366469
2025-10-05 1.775392 1.973517 2.199401 2.479460 2.822430 3.235821 3.783329
2025-10-12 1.708577 1.929413 2.188073 2.518941 2.939510 3.469107 4.209247
2025-10-19 1.651382 1.889487 2.174783 2.549661 3.042089 3.687324 4.635982
2025-10-26 1.583994 1.831166 2.132698 2.537581 3.083996 3.824415 4.962319
2025-11-02 1.524824 1.778612 2.093124 2.523626 3.118983 3.951145 5.285193
2025-11-09 1.465002 1.721517 2.043590 2.491628 3.124317 4.032936 5.545822
2025-11-16 1.410265 1.667953 1.995239 2.457126 3.121775 4.100321 5.788872
2025-11-23 1.374763 1.637328 1.974981 2.459055 3.170335 4.247355 6.184447
2025-11-30 1.349466 1.618607 1.969140 2.479909 3.247029 4.444006 6.697446
2025-12-07 1.306374 1.574415 1.926533 2.445349 3.236473 4.497335 6.950966
2025-12-14 1.263154 1.529158 1.881445 2.406017 3.217645 4.538118 7.193845
2025-12-21 1.220881 1.483779 1.834437 2.361474 3.187568 4.556842 7.395842
2025-12-28 1.208438 1.478270 1.842485 2.398586 3.289790 4.815614 8.156474
2026-01-04 1.196887 1.473331 1.850775 2.435987 3.394660 5.090673 9.023253
2026-01-11 1.183463 1.465151 1.853823 2.465075 3.487293 5.353591 9.936245
2026-01-18 1.158870 1.440449 1.831853 2.453638 3.508982 5.480610 10.536325
2026-01-25 1.135144 1.416201 1.809576 2.440424 3.526261 5.600222 11.151464
2026-02-01 1.107860 1.386110 1.777627 2.410115 3.510780 5.650255 11.580476
2026-02-08 1.081252 1.356278 1.745109 2.377421 3.488795 5.684176 11.972605
2026-02-15 1.065281 1.341238 1.734112 2.379249 3.530058 5.859139 12.878767
2026-02-22 1.054797 1.333751 1.734105 2.399012 3.605904 6.120481 14.195032